January GTA housing data confirms what many buyers are sensing on the ground: there is more choice and more negotiating room — but also more hesitation.
According to TRREB’s January 2026 Market Watch:
• 3,082 homes sold (↓19.3% year-over-year)
• 10,774 new listings entered the market (↓13.3% YoY)
• Sales-to-new-listings ratio: 29% (firmly buyer-leaning territory; this measures how many newly listed homes are being absorbed each month)
• Average selling price: $973,289 (↓6.5% YoY)
• MLS® HPI benchmark: ↓8% YoY (the Home Price Index reflects the value of a typical GTA home, adjusted for property type and mix)
Buyers currently have negotiating room and leverage — particularly in segments with higher inventory, such as condominium apartments.
Sellers are adjusting.
There is more choice than we’ve seen in recent years.
This is not a panic market.
It’s a cautious one.
A Closer Look at the Numbers
Sales have declined more sharply than new listings. That tells us demand has softened faster than supply.
A 29% sales-to-new-listings ratio places the GTA firmly in buyer-leaning territory. In practical terms, less than one-third of newly listed homes are being absorbed each month.
At the same time, prices are adjusting gradually (average price ↓6.5% year-over-year; benchmark ↓8%). This reflects moderation — not distress.
TRREB’s 2026 outlook projects overall sales between 60,000 and 70,000 transactions this year, with potential stabilization in the second half of 2026 if consumer confidence improves and buyers begin moving off the sidelines.
The key tension in today’s market is confidence — not inventory shock.
So Should Buyers Wait?
Waiting only improves your position if inventory rises meaningfully or borrowing costs decline further.
Buying now offers something concrete: selection, negotiating flexibility, and time to evaluate options carefully.
The data does not suggest urgency.
It suggests strategy.
Prepared buyers have options.
Waiting can make sense — but only with a defined strategy.
If you’d like help interpreting what these numbers mean for your next move, reach out anytime.
